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Does the UPND have 2026 in the Bag?

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A Brief Analysis of the United Party for National Development (UPND) Performance since August 2021

1.0 Introduction

The United Party for National Development (UPND), led by Hakainde Hichilema, assumed office in Zambia on August 24, 2021, following a decisive electoral victory that ended the nearly ten-year reign of the Patriotic Front (PF). This transition was met with widespread optimism, as many Zambians viewed it as an opportunity for significant change after years of economic challenges and governance issues.

Since taking office, the UPND government has made notable progress in several key areas but has also faced challenges. SIVIO Institute (SI), since August 2021, has been actively tracking the government’s performance, specifically focusing on the 248 pledges made through the party manifesto and key policy announcements through the Zambia Citizens Watch platform.

The fulfillment of these promises is assessed through a systematic evaluation using a scale that includes the categories: Not Commenced, Modified, Broken, In-Progress, and Implemented.

2.0 Government Performance by Category

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the actions taken by the UPND government over the past four years in the following areas:

Economy

Social Services

Climate Change

Corruption

Governance

Each category highlights the tangible actions by the UPND government in its pursuit of addressing national issues and fulfilling its manifesto commitments. The UPND assumed office in August 2021, inheriting a nation facing economic challenges, governance issues, and social disparities. This report evaluates the performance of the UPND government across five key sectors: Economy, Social Services, Climate Change, Corruption, and Governance. Each sector is assessed based on the status of implementing promises made in the UPND manifesto and subsequent policy pronouncements.

2.1 Economy

The economic sector in Zambia focuses on driving growth and development through various initiatives, including partnering with the private sector to improve access to low-cost finance for farmers, boosting mining output, diversifying electricity generation, and expanding the copper value chain. Efforts also target enhancing agro-processing, public investment management, fiscal expenditure, the business environment, and the digital economy, alongside infrastructure improvements and regional trade. Of the 143 total promises, 87 (61%) are in progress, 52 (36%) have not been commenced, and 3 (2%) have been implemented, indicating significant efforts, but many promises remain uninitiated[1]. While it has made strides in fiscal consolidation, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit. However, some analysts note that the trajectory of debt accumulation remains a concern, with an average annual increase of $2.42 billion[2], similar to the previous administration’s borrowing patterns. Some of the key actions undertaken include:

Debt Restructuring and Stabilization Efforts

In the bid to increase international reserves to create a buffer to cushion the economy against external shocks, the UPND government inherited a large debt burden and has made significant efforts to restructure Zambia’s external debt. In 2022, Zambia became the first African country to reach a restructuring agreement with creditors under the G20 Common Framework. This is a critical step towards reducing the country’s debt servicing burden and freeing up resources for development. The government has also sought assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), resulting in a US$1.3 billion Extended Credit Facility program[3].

Fuel Subsidy Removal

As part of its fiscal consolidation efforts, the UPND government removed the fuel subsidy in 2021[4]. While the move was initially unpopular, it aimed to reduce government expenditures and redirect funds toward more critical areas like infrastructure and social services. The government has used some savings to boost social protection programs and infrastructure development.

Economic Growth and Agriculture Support

The government has invested in agriculture, a key sector for economic growth and food security. In its efforts to meet its promise to provide targeted farm input packages to vulnerable groups of small-scale farmers, the government increased the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) allocation by 50% in 2022 to support smallholder farmers with inputs such as seeds and fertilizer. In addition, the government has introduced the “E-voucher system” to streamline the distribution of inputs and prevent corruption in the distribution process [5].

Support to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) 

The government, through the newly established Ministry of Small and Medium Enterprises Development[6], introduced the Empowerment Fund, designed to support small and medium-sized businesses in Zambia in line with its promise to promote MSME development at the community level. This fund provides loans and grants to businesses in various sectors, particularly those owned by women and youth. Through this initiative, the UPND government aims to improve access to finance for businesses that previously struggled to get loans from commercial banks [7].

2.2 Governance

The governance category in Zambia has 49 total commitments, with 30 in progress, 1 implemented, 16 not yet commenced, and 2 broken. Key promises involve improving policy formulation and government capacity, strengthening local authorities, decentralizing service delivery, and ensuring accountability through media and parliamentary oversight. The government is also working on enacting the Freedom of Information Act and strengthening security institutions. Additionally, efforts are being made to promote transparency, accountability, and a professional public service. The government aims to strengthen institutions, ensure the rule of law, and create a durable constitutional order, with an emphasis on improving governance at all levels.

Real-Time Service Delivery Portal

In the bid to re-engineer service delivery processes through technology and digitization: the government has launched the Citizens Support Portal:  https://zamportal.gov.zm/ to enhance transparency and improve service delivery by facilitating real-time access to information and services, tracking queries, and enabling citizen feedback [8].

In addition, the UPND government, in December 2024, launched free WIFI in public places such as the Intercity Lusaka Terminal in Lusaka, at Chisokone Market in Kitwe and Kapiri Mposhi Bus Station [9].

Decentralisation

To ensure that decentralization by devolution is implemented, President Hakainde Hichilema launched the National Decentralization Policy and commissioned the Zambia Devolution Support Program (ZDSP) in May 2023, signaling the government’s commitment to bringing government services closer to the people and promoting accountability and transparency among local authorities. This has been coupled with an increase in the Constituency Development Funds (CDF) up to K31.6 million from K1.6 million to ensure effective implementation of the policy [10].

2.3 Social Services

The Zambian government’s social service promises include 38 total commitments. 31 of these are in progress, 4 have not yet started, and 3 have been implemented. There are no promises modified or broken. The key areas covered include education reform, health services, gender equality, and improving social cash transfers. Several initiatives focus on enhancing access to education and healthcare, empowering women and youth, and promoting social welfare policies. Efforts to improve the pension system, community care, and infrastructure are ongoing, with several promises expected to be completed in the coming years.

Health

The UPND committed to building a health system that serves all Zambians. While progress has been made in improving healthcare infrastructure, challenges remain in ensuring equitable access to quality healthcare services across the country. The government recruited 11,200 health workers in 2022 as part of an effort to improve healthcare services and address the acute shortage of medical personnel, particularly in rural areas [11].  In 2024, an additional 4,140 health workers were recruited. This move was aimed at improving the quality and availability of micro community level care and health services. The recruitment included a range of healthcare professionals, such as doctors, nurses, laboratory technicians, and pharmacists.

The Zambian government has also made significant strides in the healthcare sector. Key developments include the construction of five (5) new Level One hospitals and 120 health centers nationwide. The Chimwemwe and Chamboli hospitals were commissioned, along with a US$25 million state-of-the-art Level One hospital in Kitwe. Additionally, the government signed a US$427 million contract for further healthcare infrastructure, and the Nchelenge District now has a new state-of-the-art hospital. Furthermore, the Nchanga North General Hospital is undergoing rehabilitation. These actions are part of ongoing efforts to improve healthcare facilities across the country [12].

Education

In education, the UPND aimed to build an education system that prepares young people to be leaders and job creators. Efforts have been made to enhance educational quality and accessibility, though disparities persist, particularly in rural areas.

The UPND government has rolled out free education up to the secondary school level from 2022. This was aimed at fulfilling the promise of empowering Zambian women and young people through providing free education, access to land, business opportunities, meaningful employment and participation in governance[13]. The government’s commitment is reflected in the increased budgetary allocation to education. In 2022, the government allocated K18.1 billion, and for the 2025 budget, it allocated K31.4 billion[14]. The government also embarked on constructing new classrooms and providing more learning materials through the Constituency Development Fund (CDF)[15].

The UPND government has made significant strides in improving public sector wages. Since 2022, the salaries of public service employees, including teachers and healthcare workers, have increased in response to the high cost of living. The government has also worked to clear salary areas for current and retired teachers and lecturers. This was one of the promises from the UPND manifesto to boost morale and retention within these critical sectors[16].

Further, in 2022, the UPND government also recruited 30,000 teachers to address the growing demand for teachers in schools across the country, especially with the government’s policy of free education up to the secondary school level[17]. The recruitment aimed at reducing teacher-pupil ratios and improving the quality of education in public schools. This move was in line with the government’s manifesto commitment to improve education and ensure better access to schooling for all Zambians.

Social Cash Transfer Program

As part of its efforts to improve social cash transfers (SCT), the UPND government increased the allocation for social protection, including social cash transfers; the K200 increment on SCT payments means that households will now collect K600 from K400 in tranches for three months. The national caseload of SCT household beneficiaries has increased to 1,311,101 from 500,000 in 2021 when the UPND administration assumed office. The program was expanded to reach more families, particularly in rural areas, as part of their effort to alleviate poverty and improve social welfare[18]. In January 2024, they introduced an Urban Price Shock Emergency Cash Transfer, which provided an additional K200 for six (6) months in addition to the regular Social Cash Transfer (SCT) amount in response to the surge in prices of essential goods.

The UPND also promised to introduce partial withdrawal of pension contributions for specific purposes: on April 17, 2023, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema announced the National Pension Scheme Amendment Bill 2023, permitting citizens to make a one-time partial withdrawal of their pension funds, which can be reinvested to create jobs and support economic development[19].

2.4 Climate Change

The Zambian government has made 12 climate change promises, with 11 currently in progress and 1 not yet commenced. Promises include promoting climate-resilient infrastructure, afforestation, local climate change management, empowering relevant institutions, and enhancing farming methods for climate resilience. Additionally, the government is working on increasing forest management, integrating climate action into sector strategies, and providing income opportunities for rural communities. Efforts also include scaling up the Zambia Forestry and Forest Industry Corporation’s activities and mobilizing private resources for climate action. The only promise not commenced is strengthening the Zambia Environment Management Authority. The UPND has acknowledged the importance of climate change and environmental sustainability. Among their actions to foster this include:  

Green Zambia Climate Initiative

In the bid to invest in schemes such as afforestation, catchment area conservation and improved landscape management, especially at the local level; the UPND government introduced the Green Zambia Initiative in 2021, aiming to promote sustainable forestry management and afforestation. This initiative focuses on planting 1 million trees annually and aims to restore forests that have been degraded by deforestation and illegal logging[20]. The government of Zambia also launched a Green Jobs Programme supported by the ILO and other UN agencies.

Banning of Charcoal Production

Zambian government has banned the production of charcoal in some areas, saying that the practice is killing the environment. The government says the ban helps to protect what is left of the country’s forestry[21]. The above actions aligned with their promise to invest in schemes related to afforestation, catchment area conservation and improved landscape management, especially at the local level.

Increased Allocation towards Climate Change Programming

In 2021, the government allocated K971 million in the National budget to strengthen climate change and mitigation. This was in a bid to enhance climate change programming in the country, thereby building resilience among its citizens[22]. Further, in the 2024 budget, K177.9 billion was allocated. This was an increase of 6.3% from 2023[23].

2.5 Corruption

The Zambian government’s efforts to tackle corruption include six promises. Of these, 5 are in progress, including establishment of fast anti-corruption courts, ensuring public records are accessible and conducting lifestyle audits for civil servants. One (1) promises has not commenced related to ensuring officials declare new wealth annually. These actions are part of Zambia’s ongoing commitment to addressing corruption and promoting transparency in governance.

Fighting Corruption

The UPND government has made a steady commitment to fight corruption through the Launch of “Operation Recovery” to ensure that public money corruptly obtained is returned back to the public. Under this administration, high-profile cases involving alleged corrupt officials from the previous government have been prosecuted. Notably, former government officials, including those from the previous ruling party, have been charged with various forms of corruption. Several cases of asset recovery have been reported in Zambia’s efforts to combat corruption. Former Lusaka Provincial Minister, Bowman Lusambo, was ordered to forfeit four houses and a Range Rover due to corruption and tax evasion, marking a significant asset recovery. Additionally, former Defense Minister Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba was instructed to repay K44 million (about US$899,970) after being convicted of corrupt practices. Furthermore, between 2020 and 2024, the Zambian government successfully recovered over US$38 million and £33,000, alongside other proceeds of crime, totaling approximately K1 billion. These actions demonstrate the government’s commitment to reclaiming assets obtained through corruption[24].

As part of efforts at introducing unexplained wealth orders, enforced by seizing property not proven in courts of law the Economic and Financial Crimes Court (EFCC) has ordered the forfeiture of a K9 million farm owned by Tasila Lungu, a Member of Parliament and daughter of former President Edgar Lungu, due to unexplained wealth. The court dismissed Tasila’s application to appeal the decision. The ruling was based on evidence showing a discrepancy between her legitimate income and the farm’s value. This is part of Zambia’s broader asset recovery effort, demonstrating the government’s commitment to pursuing individuals whose wealth cannot be explained by legal means, in line with the implementation of unexplained wealth orders[25].

3.0 Bottlenecks Remain

Despite its achievements, the UPND government has faced significant challenges. High inflation, the deteriorating exchange rate with US$1 is equal to K27.9[26] compared to US$1 at K16.72 before they took over in 2021, this has made a lot of commodities increase particularly in food prices and energy, and continues to burden many Zambians, with the benefits of economic stabilization still not reaching ordinary citizens. Unemployment remains high, and the promises of prosperity have yet to materialize fully. Additionally, the IMF bailout, while stabilizing Zambia’s economy, has imposed austerity measures that have led to public dissatisfaction, especially with cuts on subsidies on fuel and agriculture. Critics also point to Zambia’s continued reliance on foreign loans, raising concerns about future fiscal health[27]. Politically, while there has been more freedom, opposition parties accuse the government of suppressing dissent through police actions or limiting media access. The opposition is also of the opinion that there is a heavy arm of government on the judiciary, especially with the outcome of the eligibility case of the former president. It is perceived that the UPND government has weakened the judiciary by firing seven (7) judges. Finally, the UPND has struggled to resolve the ongoing energy shortages and infrastructure deficiencies, with slow progress in addressing these critical issues affecting both businesses and daily life. Steps like the government’s approval of the Open Access Policy on Electricity and Energy to encourage private investment in the sector in June 2024 and facilitating investments in renewable energy like the US$2 billion renewable energy investment agreement with the United Arab Emirates are a step in the right direction. However, resolving the energy crisis will require much more concerted efforts and planning by the government and other stakeholders not only within Zambia but across the SADC region.

The impact of the drought has also worsened the situation with hunger and poverty levels, especially in the rural communities that depend on agriculture for survival[28].

4.0 Conclusion

The UPND government has implemented several key policies and reforms since taking office in 2021. While challenges remain, especially in the areas of job creation, climate change policy execution, and anti-corruption efforts, tangible progress has been made across the economy, social services, climate change, and governance. The government’s focus on fiscal consolidation, social welfare programs, and governance reforms has been central to their mandate, but the full impact of these efforts will continue to unfold as Zambia heads towards the 2026 elections.

With just over a year till the next elections, the UPND has made some progress in terms of fulfillment of its electoral promises. The progress has been slow, and as illustrated above, there are still important issues in relation to the economy.

It has managed to implement seven (7) promises (3% of total promises made) and has made some progress across 164 promises (66% of total promises it made). There are still 74 promises (30%) where it has not made any meaningful actions to fulfil them and has broken two (2) (1%) promises.

Look out for a more detailed and comprehensive report of the UPND’s performance in July 2025 in the run-up to the 4th anniversary of President Hichilema’s term of office. At the end of the day, Zambia Citizens Watch will provide an opportunity for citizens to decide whether this government has done enough to fulfil promises made to warrant a second term in office.

Continue to check on the performance of the UPND based on their 248 promises on Zambia Citizens Watch –  https://africancitizenswatch.org/zambia

5.0 Footnotes